Taliban 3.0: Not rebels, but government
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Justice reported to President Vladimir Putin that the Taliban could be removed from the list of banned organizations. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said “this initiative reflects an objective situation. They are the real power. We care about Afghanistan”, the diplomat said.
The logic here is quite simple. Russia recognizes as terrorists those organizations that pose a threat directly to its national security. Consequently, if there are radical groups in the world that are fighting for their independence, seeking to come to power, make a revolution, or destroy their potential or real enemy – this is no reason to be recognized as a terrorist by Moscow. If such groups use subversive or terrorist methods in their struggle – this is also not a mandatory reason to be banned in Russia. On the contrary, the main criterion here is the presence or absence of a threat to Russia from non-governmental actors in international relations, damaging its interests or closest allies. The position is rational, logical but understandable. This is the way it should be in the political process.
The Taliban was created back in 1994. In the Afghan-Pakistani border region of Kandahar province, a group of former Mujahideen, participants in the war against the USSR, announced the creation of a new Islamist movement with the aim of “stabilizing and purifying” Afghanistan. From the first days, the Taliban’s goal was to establish an Islamic Emirate, introducing a rigid form of Sharia-based on a synthesis of the Asian form of Islamic law and Afghan tribal adat. By 1996, they had already come to power and established control over the territory of Afghanistan. The Taliban have never been interested in the world processes. They did not seek to become part of the global jihad, which was gaining momentum in that historical period. The Taliban have always been and remain a purely Afghan provincial and localized movement. Their interest is focused on Afghanistan.
However, the early Taliban, or Taliban 1.0, made a grave historical mistake that cost them power and forced them into caves and underground for a quarter century. It is, of course, an alliance with Al-Qaeda and its leader, Usama bin Laden. The Taliban gave shelter to a small group of Arab terrorists and allowed them to train and carry out their bloody activities. As a result of these processes, September 11 attacks were possible in the United States. Russia, in turn, fought against representatives of Al-Qaeda both on its territory and abroad. And, of course, the alliance between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda was the very reason that led to the banning of the Afghan movement in Russia. After a quarter of a century, Al-Qaeda has practically disappeared from Afghanistan. The old alliance has ceased to be visible. The new leadership of the Taliban realized that it was cooperation with Usama bin Laden that led to the loss of power, a bloody war, and the occupation of Afghan territory by America and NATO.
In 2021, the Taliban won a crushing and lightning victory and returned to power. US and NATO troops have left Afghan territory, and the Islamic Emirate has been reincarnated. That is, the Taliban believes that the Emirate has existed all this time, but it was in a state of war against the occupiers. Al-Qaeda has since replaced the Islamic State and its Afghan-Pakistani branch, Khorasan Province. But this organization takes an extremely hostile and uncompromising position against the Taliban. In their view, the Afghan movement is too soft on outside forces and has retreated from global jihad against the infidels. In this Khorasan Province is right. The Taliban seek agreement with the region’s countries and the international community. This has exacerbated the conflict situation with neighboring Pakistan. The fact is that the Pakistani military played an important role in strengthening the Taliban and its successes.
Since the reincarnation of the Islamic Emirate, Taliban leaders have sought to strengthen sovereignty and normal working relations with all the countries of the region, which the conservative Pakistani military does not like. Islamabad wants to keep Afghanistan and the Taliban isolated. Only thus can the Pakistani military maintain its influence over the Taliban and Afghanistan. This will enable them to retain some influence over several radical and terrorist groups in the region. Modernization of the Afghan political reality is not good for the Pakistani military, and they will seek to prevent the most rational Taliban from reforming the Emirate.
In short, the Taliban have traveled an excellent and difficult path. And this path is not unique. They came to that very power from a revolutionary radical insurgent force fighting for power. In the history of international relations, something similar has happened almost everywhere – in Latin America, Asia, and Africa. The current revolutionary authorities of Iran, neighboring Afghanistan, also came to power as a result of mass protests. However, after acquiring a new status, they have gone a long way toward reducing their appetites and revolutionary fervor. Something similar may happen with the Taliban. Taliban 1.0 at the beginning of the century was replaced by Taliban 2.0, a subversive insurgent revolutionary organization that fought foreign troops and often used terrorist methods against them. Today, there is no need for that. Now we are dealing with Taliban 3.0, an organization that represents the authority, the government of Afghanistan.
The main task of Russia, regional countries, and the international community is to create international and regional conditions that will push the Taliban toward integration rather than radicalization. Relieving them of their terrorist status is a step in that direction. It is inevitable. Many countries, both in the East and in the West, will soon come to this. And, by the way, if Russia decides to remove the Taliban from the banned list, it will not be the first country to do so. Kazakhstan already removed the Taliban from its terrorist list at the end of 2023.